US 2020 Presidential Election Predictions

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Moody's Analytics Model Update

On October 27, 2020, Moody's Analytics, Mark Zandi and Bernard Yaros, provided their final 2020 Presidential Election Forecast via a podcast this morning. Their approach is mostly quantitative, but their results seem to closely track state-wide polling as well. The thoroughness of their research in impressive.

One of the points mentioned, was that Trump's approval ratings, as measured by Gallup has hardly varied in the last four years. This is in sharp contrast to other presidents since Truman and speaks to a highly loyal base. The other aspect is that as a general rule, any president which there was recession within two years of an election, does not become re-elected. On the other hand, given the enormous and rapid stimulus package, Americans are not feeling the full impact of a recession. Mark Zandi pointed to the recovery in the stock market. This recovery is good for many older Americans whose with retirement plans is heavily invested in stocks. Trump's message of good economic policies still resonates with retirees as the economy recovers.

Their prior prediction in July 2020 was that Joe Biden would win 308 electoral votes. Now they are predicting 279 votes. What changed was Florida from a lean Democrat to a lean Republican. The tipping point state is Pennsylvania and there is no more cushion.

They describe the 2020 election now as a nail-biter - possibly going to the court battles to be decided. They caution people not to think of election day results, but election month results.

Please note they did not present a map in terms of solid, likely and lean. I used their prior white paper on the election to categorize the states in this manner.

David Lord

Moody's Presentation

Moody's webinar recording

Updated: October 28, 2020